* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 134 131 124 117 98 88 80 74 70 65 56 53 53 54 57 60 V (KT) LAND 130 134 131 124 117 98 88 80 74 70 65 56 53 53 54 57 60 V (KT) LGEM 130 135 132 126 119 106 96 89 80 72 63 57 54 53 54 58 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 22 22 20 18 22 20 16 13 16 11 8 7 5 6 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -4 0 3 2 2 5 5 1 -1 -1 2 -1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 76 89 78 80 78 73 58 97 103 126 140 199 252 273 257 233 232 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.5 25.9 26.1 25.6 25.9 25.8 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 152 151 148 148 145 141 130 124 125 120 123 121 122 118 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 66 63 63 64 64 65 65 64 59 55 54 52 50 48 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 26 27 28 26 29 29 28 27 27 24 25 24 23 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 44 53 53 58 65 87 102 112 94 108 92 87 75 72 52 42 26 200 MB DIV 69 8 5 11 37 33 38 42 4 -7 -3 1 -2 1 21 12 31 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 2 2 0 -2 -5 -5 -2 0 2 0 2 5 4 8 LAND (KM) 1020 1086 1154 1233 1313 1484 1640 1768 1898 2051 2120 1841 1589 1364 1168 1008 862 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.5 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.3 16.2 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.8 19.6 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.2 120.0 120.8 121.6 123.3 125.1 127.1 129.4 131.9 134.6 137.2 139.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 11 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 18 19 16 15 19 14 23 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -15. -25. -36. -44. -52. -59. -64. -66. -67. -70. -74. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -13. -16. -21. -19. -15. -9. -5. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 10. 13. 12. 10. 5. 0. -5. -8. -7. -8. -10. -12. -11. -11. -11. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -0. 1. -1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 1. -6. -13. -32. -42. -50. -56. -60. -65. -74. -77. -77. -76. -73. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 17.6 118.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 618.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.9% 3.2% 2.1% 1.9% 4.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/30/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##