* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 75 72 67 55 44 35 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 76 75 72 67 55 44 35 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 76 75 72 67 55 42 31 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 15 22 26 32 39 45 42 42 42 54 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 9 6 6 17 8 8 3 6 0 -4 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 298 231 227 232 235 229 224 216 218 225 248 262 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.6 25.7 25.1 25.0 25.0 24.6 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 137 133 129 126 119 120 114 113 113 109 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 72 69 70 66 64 56 48 44 42 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 20 18 16 14 12 9 6 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 35 44 32 41 55 45 19 -2 -21 -25 -40 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 58 66 63 69 69 37 22 25 23 -4 -3 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 7 10 15 21 20 23 18 15 16 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1481 1450 1422 1405 1392 1349 1270 1188 1113 1046 971 907 867 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.4 20.1 21.7 23.2 24.5 25.6 26.6 27.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.5 141.5 141.6 141.6 141.6 141.9 142.8 144.0 145.4 147.0 148.9 150.8 152.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 13 10 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -21. -26. -31. -38. -45. -48. -51. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -0. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -20. -23. -23. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -3. -8. -20. -31. -40. -48. -55. -61. -67. -72. -77. -80. -84. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.4 141.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.28 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.18 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 18.0% 16.8% 12.7% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 3.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 7.3% 6.0% 4.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##