* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062018 08/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 42 47 54 61 64 69 70 73 74 74 70 71 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 42 47 54 61 64 69 70 73 74 74 70 71 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 36 41 45 48 51 54 58 59 59 57 56 55 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 16 13 4 10 12 10 3 5 9 14 14 22 19 21 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 7 8 11 9 0 -5 0 0 5 0 5 0 5 3 2 SHEAR DIR 48 48 50 49 73 89 100 124 185 237 201 224 228 226 234 240 239 SST (C) 27.4 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.3 26.7 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.2 25.8 26.8 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 133 131 131 133 129 123 113 114 113 113 112 107 112 121 124 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 128 128 131 127 120 110 109 107 106 104 99 103 108 109 110 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -52.8 -53.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 72 73 72 71 64 56 53 51 54 53 52 50 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 19 21 23 23 24 24 22 21 19 20 20 20 19 20 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 87 96 92 102 94 116 149 144 130 108 96 79 47 39 8 -10 -12 200 MB DIV 99 99 89 88 131 63 22 -16 -25 -3 23 21 26 18 24 3 19 700-850 TADV -7 -12 -12 -7 -8 -3 -5 -2 1 0 13 13 24 23 26 24 13 LAND (KM) 238 340 427 520 618 873 1182 1505 1799 2075 2110 2043 2018 2054 2070 1999 1928 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 14.3 15.2 15.9 16.8 17.8 18.7 19.5 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.0 20.1 21.1 22.1 23.1 25.6 28.5 31.5 34.2 36.7 39.0 41.0 43.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 12 14 15 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 10 11 12 17 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 27. 28. 28. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 6. 5. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -0. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 29. 36. 39. 44. 45. 48. 49. 49. 45. 46. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 19.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 SIX 08/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.56 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.67 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 17.1% 10.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 20.5% 11.3% 6.6% 2.8% 5.2% 3.3% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 6.2% 3.7% 0.5% 0.3% 4.4% 6.3% 0.2% Consensus: 4.0% 14.6% 8.6% 4.6% 1.1% 3.2% 6.7% 0.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 SIX 08/30/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 30 36 42 47 54 61 64 69 70 73 74 74 70 71 68 70 18HR AGO 25 24 30 36 41 48 55 58 63 64 67 68 68 64 65 62 64 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 32 39 46 49 54 55 58 59 59 55 56 53 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 27 34 37 42 43 46 47 47 43 44 41 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT