* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 139 140 136 131 113 100 89 85 83 75 65 59 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 125 139 140 136 131 113 100 89 85 83 75 65 59 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 125 137 138 133 126 114 104 95 85 76 68 61 57 56 57 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 17 16 16 17 21 18 14 13 14 5 4 2 4 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -5 -4 1 0 1 4 7 4 2 -1 1 -1 0 5 SHEAR DIR 68 88 102 94 68 61 52 68 110 98 112 121 180 176 257 243 219 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.0 25.8 26.4 25.7 26.0 25.7 26.0 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 152 152 149 148 146 144 135 123 129 121 124 120 124 118 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 62 62 64 64 65 66 61 55 53 53 51 48 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 23 25 27 27 30 30 31 31 30 27 26 25 25 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 39 49 52 52 54 78 94 104 115 107 100 97 87 87 86 76 71 200 MB DIV 55 77 41 -8 9 23 35 51 44 23 -11 14 -6 -6 6 16 26 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 2 0 -3 -2 -3 -3 -3 2 0 1 2 7 12 LAND (KM) 952 1003 1057 1131 1206 1375 1549 1716 1834 1967 2127 1979 1714 1476 1265 1076 894 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.3 16.7 16.3 16.2 16.7 17.5 18.5 19.4 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.4 119.1 119.9 120.7 122.3 124.1 126.0 128.2 130.6 133.2 135.9 138.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 13 13 13 11 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 15 19 21 13 16 17 21 8 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -13. -22. -32. -40. -47. -53. -57. -59. -61. -63. -67. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -10. -6. -2. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 15. 20. 20. 17. 9. 2. -7. -11. -10. -11. -14. -17. -17. -16. -16. -13. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 14. 15. 11. 6. -12. -25. -36. -40. -42. -50. -60. -66. -68. -67. -66. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 17.8 117.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 55.0 -22.0 to 44.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 593.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 70% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 69.5% 22.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 74.3% 26.8% 28.4% 30.6% 44.7% 6.6% 2.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 50.1% 16.5% 9.5% 10.2% 14.9% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/30/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##