* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 71 68 66 56 48 39 33 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 71 71 68 66 56 48 39 33 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 72 72 70 67 58 47 36 27 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 19 23 32 38 44 46 42 39 39 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 7 7 7 9 13 6 6 5 6 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 297 249 240 238 233 227 220 216 219 223 243 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.1 25.4 24.9 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 139 136 133 128 123 120 118 114 117 112 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 72 73 71 72 67 65 60 52 45 37 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 20 20 17 18 14 13 10 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 44 41 43 36 55 57 38 14 16 6 -4 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 53 68 47 69 92 61 31 24 32 7 -12 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 8 13 16 21 21 26 16 15 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1497 1454 1412 1390 1372 1331 1258 1171 1084 999 913 821 781 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.7 19.2 20.8 22.3 23.7 24.9 25.9 26.7 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.5 141.7 141.9 141.9 141.9 142.1 142.8 143.9 145.3 147.0 149.0 151.2 153.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 18 15 10 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -20. -25. -31. -35. -40. -43. -45. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 1. -2. -2. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -2. -4. -14. -22. -31. -37. -44. -50. -55. -61. -64. -67. -69. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.0 141.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.34 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.26 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 17.8% 17.5% 13.5% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 2.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 7.5% 6.3% 4.7% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##