* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 105 112 113 112 111 101 97 94 92 86 77 72 68 68 70 70 V (KT) LAND 95 105 112 113 112 111 101 97 94 92 86 77 72 68 68 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 95 106 111 113 112 107 101 96 92 88 80 70 64 61 60 64 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 16 14 16 20 18 15 11 16 12 8 4 2 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -5 -4 -1 0 2 0 7 6 4 2 -3 1 1 6 SHEAR DIR 83 72 78 87 86 63 56 58 92 109 119 123 146 187 234 265 249 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.7 26.9 26.4 26.5 26.0 26.3 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 152 152 150 147 147 146 142 134 129 130 124 127 124 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 66 69 66 65 61 63 61 63 62 63 61 56 54 50 48 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 23 25 24 23 28 27 29 30 31 30 28 27 24 23 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 32 41 51 54 52 70 87 103 126 118 130 116 137 110 107 82 74 200 MB DIV 53 68 58 27 6 13 24 59 41 29 14 -3 5 22 15 32 8 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 0 1 -3 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 2 2 3 12 18 LAND (KM) 918 956 1000 1067 1137 1305 1494 1674 1829 1975 2131 2110 1837 1570 1318 1085 878 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.8 17.6 17.1 16.5 16.2 16.2 16.6 17.2 18.0 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.8 118.5 119.3 120.1 121.8 123.6 125.5 127.6 129.9 132.3 134.8 137.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 13 16 23 15 14 18 18 16 4 4 6 0 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -12. -17. -20. -23. -26. -27. -28. -30. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -0. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 7. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 3. 7. 8. 12. 15. 17. 15. 11. 9. 5. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 17. 18. 17. 16. 6. 2. -1. -3. -9. -18. -23. -27. -27. -25. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.8 117.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.24 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 450.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 -2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 44.5% 26.7% 24.4% 19.8% 14.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 39.3% 24.3% 18.6% 16.4% 25.4% 5.3% 2.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 7.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 30.4% 17.6% 14.4% 12.1% 13.4% 6.9% 0.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##