* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 78 85 91 96 99 98 92 87 87 82 77 72 69 68 68 69 V (KT) LAND 70 78 85 91 96 99 98 92 87 87 82 77 72 69 68 68 69 V (KT) LGEM 70 79 86 92 95 98 98 95 93 92 86 78 71 64 59 57 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 11 13 13 14 21 19 18 12 12 13 12 10 5 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 0 4 1 5 8 7 3 -3 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 77 109 97 74 66 71 45 65 56 79 103 104 121 149 211 234 262 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.1 27.3 26.8 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 153 154 151 147 148 149 146 138 133 134 130 127 128 131 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 68 65 68 67 62 63 61 61 59 60 58 56 53 50 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 23 24 24 26 26 27 30 30 29 27 25 23 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 22 32 43 49 67 80 88 100 93 104 112 112 93 92 71 200 MB DIV 67 80 58 34 36 4 34 20 18 10 -8 -12 3 29 23 13 13 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -3 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -6 -4 -5 -6 1 4 2 7 LAND (KM) 851 899 934 980 1028 1175 1336 1517 1704 1860 2013 2170 2083 1809 1541 1276 1015 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.5 17.0 16.4 16.0 16.0 16.3 17.0 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.7 117.3 118.1 118.8 120.5 122.1 123.8 125.7 127.8 130.1 132.6 135.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 14 14 15 23 11 14 20 18 10 4 9 6 2 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 9. 14. 13. 11. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 28. 22. 17. 17. 12. 7. 2. -1. -2. -2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.8 116.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 10.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 8.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 6.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 -5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 56% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 55.5% 50.0% 43.7% 39.2% 23.6% 20.7% 15.3% 11.8% Logistic: 43.1% 40.6% 32.7% 27.6% 27.5% 19.0% 10.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 24.6% 17.2% 6.9% 5.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 41.1% 35.9% 27.8% 24.0% 17.7% 13.6% 8.5% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##