* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/29/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 73 75 75 69 60 49 43 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 73 75 75 69 60 49 43 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 65 70 73 75 74 68 59 47 37 28 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 10 15 18 14 29 38 44 42 44 40 42 39 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 0 0 4 2 7 6 2 6 1 2 -1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 328 327 303 295 298 259 246 233 229 227 230 229 237 247 256 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.7 26.9 26.5 26.1 26.0 25.5 25.2 24.7 24.6 24.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 147 147 146 140 132 128 124 123 118 116 110 109 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -52.0 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 68 71 73 72 68 66 61 54 49 46 42 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 19 20 19 19 17 15 15 12 10 7 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 39 41 51 57 40 41 58 59 55 27 14 -10 -25 -44 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 1 17 18 30 49 47 108 29 25 16 7 4 5 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 -3 -2 3 13 19 17 18 24 14 14 16 12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1780 1697 1614 1544 1475 1396 1327 1287 1218 1141 1070 1015 993 988 1019 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.4 17.9 19.5 20.9 22.3 23.8 25.5 27.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.0 139.8 140.5 141.0 141.6 142.0 142.3 142.5 143.2 144.2 145.5 147.3 149.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 11 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 13 16 17 19 14 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -19. -25. -29. -34. -38. -41. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 1. -2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 15. 15. 9. -0. -11. -17. -28. -35. -42. -46. -52. -55. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.2 139.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/29/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.26 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 25.4% 22.3% 17.0% 12.8% 16.0% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 16.6% 25.0% 9.0% 6.6% 7.9% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 24.7% 1.2% 0.4% 6.5% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 10.8% 25.0% 10.8% 8.0% 9.1% 7.1% 4.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/29/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##