* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 59 68 76 83 93 95 94 90 89 87 82 79 77 78 77 78 V (KT) LAND 50 59 68 76 83 93 95 94 90 89 87 82 79 77 78 77 78 V (KT) LGEM 50 60 69 77 84 94 97 97 96 94 91 87 82 78 76 76 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 8 7 11 10 14 17 16 14 9 12 8 9 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 0 -1 0 -1 0 3 0 -1 0 5 SHEAR DIR 47 37 68 114 92 57 63 42 49 55 73 82 111 128 187 249 223 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.6 27.9 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 154 153 153 150 143 147 146 144 137 139 138 140 135 134 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 67 64 66 63 64 60 60 58 59 61 61 59 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 21 22 22 25 24 27 28 30 32 31 30 28 28 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 19 22 20 29 40 55 73 89 101 107 124 130 140 134 126 200 MB DIV 42 68 74 74 33 47 16 1 -4 20 -20 -17 -7 41 65 38 56 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -7 -5 -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -4 -7 -6 -4 -1 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 752 793 844 900 940 1062 1221 1403 1597 1787 1958 2114 2296 2052 1780 1503 1229 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.0 17.9 17.6 17.2 16.7 16.1 15.8 15.8 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.2 115.1 116.0 116.9 117.7 119.4 121.2 123.1 125.0 126.9 128.9 130.9 133.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 15 14 14 18 21 9 14 17 16 7 8 14 9 5 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 13. 16. 19. 20. 18. 16. 12. 11. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 26. 33. 43. 45. 44. 40. 39. 37. 32. 29. 27. 28. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.4 114.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 13.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 13.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 11.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 7.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 10.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 6.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -7.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 58% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.3% 66.1% 60.9% 56.3% 37.8% 58.2% 41.4% 17.6% Logistic: 32.0% 40.1% 38.0% 27.4% 18.1% 34.0% 36.9% 9.4% Bayesian: 16.6% 23.4% 10.3% 5.6% 2.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 30.6% 43.2% 36.4% 29.8% 19.6% 31.3% 26.3% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##