* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 52 53 53 52 48 45 37 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 52 53 53 52 48 45 37 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 49 50 50 50 48 43 38 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 15 14 19 20 31 43 51 54 51 42 39 35 34 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -6 -4 0 2 2 1 6 0 2 2 5 1 5 0 SHEAR DIR 320 312 319 313 305 292 261 249 239 226 227 229 238 244 243 243 237 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.2 26.8 26.5 25.9 25.7 24.5 24.9 24.5 24.6 24.5 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 142 142 143 141 135 131 128 122 120 108 113 108 108 106 107 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -53.2 -54.3 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 71 71 75 75 72 70 67 64 61 59 54 44 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 19 19 19 19 17 17 15 13 10 7 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 23 30 35 35 52 45 49 65 65 38 1 -28 -57 -87 -101 -109 200 MB DIV -19 2 2 4 9 29 74 80 73 40 27 4 -6 -8 -8 6 -7 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -4 -1 0 6 15 14 14 11 13 13 9 13 9 2 LAND (KM) 1996 1891 1786 1705 1624 1488 1402 1350 1307 1260 1205 1155 1135 1147 1167 1165 1168 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.6 15.5 16.9 18.4 20.1 21.7 23.4 25.1 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.9 137.9 138.9 139.7 140.4 141.4 141.8 142.0 142.3 142.9 143.9 145.3 147.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 7 7 6 8 8 8 9 10 12 12 11 8 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 10 11 12 13 8 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -18. -26. -33. -38. -41. -45. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -5. -13. -24. -33. -40. -46. -51. -57. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.1 136.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 15.0% 14.0% 9.8% 7.4% 10.9% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.9% 4.8% 3.3% 2.6% 3.7% 3.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##