* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 39 38 35 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 39 38 35 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 38 34 30 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 35 35 34 35 37 44 55 51 49 39 22 8 10 13 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 4 3 0 8 9 7 5 4 0 0 -6 -8 0 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 257 256 256 250 265 251 236 226 215 232 226 210 127 3 357 355 358 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.6 26.9 25.8 25.4 25.1 25.1 25.6 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 143 144 144 144 142 140 142 141 135 123 119 115 113 118 106 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.5 -55.1 -55.4 -56.5 -57.0 -56.8 -56.6 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.5 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 44 45 49 50 54 59 61 58 51 54 61 60 64 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 32 35 40 48 57 71 76 89 84 72 52 36 20 16 3 -21 10 200 MB DIV 6 8 -16 -22 28 61 63 42 68 73 37 6 7 -1 7 35 22 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 2 7 18 18 23 16 9 0 -4 -4 0 LAND (KM) 257 256 275 324 385 512 607 694 792 939 1192 1531 1843 2112 2318 2467 2309 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.5 20.1 21.0 22.5 24.4 26.6 29.0 31.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 159.8 160.5 161.2 162.0 162.8 164.5 165.8 166.9 167.9 169.0 170.8 173.3 175.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 10 12 15 16 14 12 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 33 39 40 36 22 19 18 21 14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -12. -22. -33. -43. -50. -52. -49. -46. -45. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -14. -20. -26. -31. -32. -32. -31. -32. -34. -38. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.5 159.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING