* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/25/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 46 39 33 30 26 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 46 39 33 30 26 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 45 38 33 30 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 29 30 37 37 36 39 48 51 51 34 26 7 2 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 10 7 3 2 4 9 7 11 1 4 0 -4 -6 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 254 267 268 267 264 265 266 243 231 222 220 214 201 168 166 21 336 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.7 25.8 25.5 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 137 139 141 142 142 141 140 139 137 134 124 119 115 115 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -55.5 -55.3 -56.0 -56.6 -57.2 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 48 47 46 47 52 56 60 62 59 51 48 51 57 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 12 12 10 11 11 12 11 11 12 14 15 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 17 25 38 36 40 46 66 78 88 87 68 48 26 -1 -11 10 24 200 MB DIV 6 -12 -12 7 3 -20 48 56 59 48 53 58 10 13 17 34 46 700-850 TADV 7 4 0 1 -2 -5 -1 1 1 11 14 18 23 12 4 2 8 LAND (KM) 219 214 210 230 234 240 301 377 452 532 638 809 1133 1579 1902 2103 2301 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.3 20.9 21.7 23.1 25.0 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 158.4 158.7 159.0 159.5 159.9 161.1 162.3 163.5 164.5 165.4 166.3 167.4 169.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 10 13 18 17 12 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 29 24 21 23 36 39 31 22 20 18 10 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -19. -27. -35. -43. -47. -48. -46. -44. -43. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -8. -6. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -22. -25. -29. -32. -35. -37. -41. -46. -46. -45. -40. -40. -42. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.3 158.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 349.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING