* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/25/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 47 38 32 27 23 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 47 38 32 27 23 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 47 38 33 29 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 24 27 27 30 40 41 42 47 56 50 48 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 10 7 12 8 0 0 8 6 3 1 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 256 273 275 270 269 280 255 249 236 222 226 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 136 138 138 141 142 143 143 141 140 137 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.9 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 55 54 49 44 43 49 53 55 58 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 16 15 15 13 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 22 34 43 41 52 60 76 85 96 88 76 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 3 -6 -1 21 -21 21 36 65 46 44 46 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 7 4 4 2 -4 0 0 7 8 18 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 229 216 201 203 216 236 291 373 455 554 698 901 1125 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.9 20.5 21.5 23.1 25.2 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.3 158.4 158.4 158.9 159.3 160.6 161.9 163.2 164.4 165.6 166.9 168.3 169.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 9 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 34 33 25 21 32 39 35 24 20 19 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -19. -26. -34. -42. -47. -50. -52. -54. -57. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -9. -14. -16. -16. -13. -9. -7. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -13. -22. -28. -33. -37. -40. -45. -46. -50. -55. -58. -58. -60. -62. -67. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.1 158.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 345.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING