* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/24/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 93 85 75 66 52 39 32 27 25 23 21 19 20 17 17 21 V (KT) LAND 100 93 85 75 66 52 39 32 27 25 23 21 19 20 17 17 21 V (KT) LGEM 100 93 84 75 67 54 45 38 33 29 24 21 19 18 17 16 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 18 26 32 35 41 44 47 49 52 41 43 32 23 15 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 13 13 13 7 4 2 0 8 4 1 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 221 243 245 260 272 270 268 269 238 230 224 215 222 200 166 151 215 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.7 27.2 26.4 25.6 25.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 135 136 137 138 141 143 143 142 140 141 136 128 121 115 114 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -55.1 -55.4 -55.5 -56.1 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 62 59 58 55 45 40 40 48 53 55 57 56 54 52 55 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 18 15 14 13 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 17 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 21 31 41 54 61 67 79 82 102 96 90 63 30 -1 -4 200 MB DIV 61 58 46 7 -14 -7 -19 30 51 49 75 51 41 55 27 18 3 700-850 TADV 12 17 21 9 3 0 -5 0 2 9 13 25 33 25 13 3 7 LAND (KM) 235 231 199 183 149 186 191 286 410 535 656 809 988 1196 1459 1762 2052 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.4 20.8 21.9 23.6 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 158.0 158.0 158.1 158.3 158.5 159.5 160.9 162.4 163.9 165.3 166.6 167.9 169.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 6 7 7 7 8 9 11 11 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 37 35 30 17 31 39 27 20 20 17 8 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -20. -25. -29. -32. -34. -34. -35. -38. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -22. -24. -26. -28. -32. -37. -42. -46. -47. -44. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -12. -15. -17. -16. -16. -14. -11. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -25. -34. -48. -61. -68. -73. -75. -77. -79. -81. -80. -83. -83. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.4 158.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 503.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING