* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/24/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 97 88 77 68 54 42 34 30 29 30 29 27 25 25 28 31 V (KT) LAND 105 97 88 77 68 54 42 34 30 29 30 29 27 25 25 28 31 V (KT) LGEM 105 97 87 77 68 55 45 37 32 28 26 24 21 19 18 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 19 21 28 36 39 45 42 39 50 51 42 21 12 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 13 16 16 11 4 5 1 7 4 3 -1 0 -1 -2 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 230 229 245 252 259 279 269 267 250 231 223 214 195 184 153 102 1 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.2 25.8 25.6 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 136 138 139 143 143 143 140 139 141 137 123 121 117 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.7 -54.0 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 62 61 60 56 50 42 43 46 49 52 57 55 54 49 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 20 17 15 14 11 11 11 11 14 16 17 16 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 57 32 33 25 30 48 54 66 68 89 106 98 89 75 31 1 -8 200 MB DIV 69 63 52 44 12 -33 -22 -3 35 69 35 63 51 16 19 9 17 700-850 TADV 11 18 19 21 4 2 -3 -3 -2 0 9 25 27 22 11 6 2 LAND (KM) 243 232 227 205 179 175 178 234 340 461 566 680 845 1074 1337 1620 1916 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.3 20.6 21.4 22.6 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 157.9 158.0 158.1 158.3 158.4 159.2 160.4 161.7 163.1 164.5 165.7 166.8 168.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 9 11 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 37 35 33 18 24 38 35 24 19 20 14 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -17. -24. -29. -33. -37. -39. -39. -40. -42. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -22. -24. -24. -25. -28. -34. -39. -41. -40. -35. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -11. -14. -17. -16. -12. -9. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -28. -37. -51. -63. -71. -75. -76. -75. -76. -78. -80. -80. -77. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.0 157.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 490.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING