* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/24/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 90 83 75 61 49 40 35 33 32 27 24 20 19 20 23 V (KT) LAND 105 98 90 83 75 61 49 40 35 33 32 27 24 20 19 20 23 V (KT) LGEM 105 98 89 80 72 59 49 42 37 32 29 25 22 20 19 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 16 16 18 28 36 44 45 47 43 50 45 42 29 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 12 13 16 10 7 1 2 5 2 4 3 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 236 221 242 261 259 272 274 274 267 241 221 220 208 209 194 170 131 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.2 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 137 137 136 139 140 143 145 145 142 139 140 138 127 120 117 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -54.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -55.5 -55.6 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 64 62 61 59 52 43 42 43 50 50 56 59 58 56 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 20 18 16 12 11 10 10 11 12 11 11 10 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 76 67 43 42 28 40 51 61 64 76 89 104 82 71 45 15 -13 200 MB DIV 96 86 68 59 44 -2 -32 -23 23 47 68 29 62 34 27 12 -8 700-850 TADV 7 8 17 21 23 1 0 -4 0 2 4 7 17 26 23 13 5 LAND (KM) 265 233 218 207 173 142 175 191 286 405 515 604 741 935 1191 1479 1774 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.1 20.3 20.2 20.2 20.3 20.8 21.8 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 157.8 157.9 157.9 158.0 158.1 158.6 159.6 160.9 162.4 163.8 165.1 166.1 167.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 4 6 7 7 7 6 8 10 12 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 44 42 39 38 38 29 17 33 42 28 22 21 19 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -23. -28. -33. -36. -38. -39. -39. -41. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -19. -21. -24. -30. -35. -40. -42. -39. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -19. -17. -18. -16. -16. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -22. -30. -44. -56. -65. -70. -72. -73. -78. -81. -85. -86. -85. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.5 157.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 477.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING