* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/21/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 133 129 124 117 108 97 84 74 65 56 48 42 37 33 32 31 V (KT) LAND 135 133 129 124 117 108 97 84 74 65 56 48 42 37 33 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 135 131 124 116 110 98 89 78 67 58 50 44 40 37 35 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 7 9 7 11 16 27 34 41 47 44 50 45 49 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 -3 -1 1 15 5 5 1 0 2 0 2 -2 7 SHEAR DIR 188 184 203 225 221 199 218 242 254 253 264 262 262 255 271 269 271 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 144 142 138 137 138 138 139 138 142 141 138 139 143 147 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 61 63 64 62 58 55 48 42 39 39 41 46 42 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 23 21 23 22 19 16 14 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 51 55 56 48 50 71 68 65 51 43 38 45 52 69 80 80 71 200 MB DIV 56 61 25 26 40 101 111 115 45 0 -11 -17 0 8 32 -14 -11 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 2 2 7 13 4 -4 -6 -5 -7 -9 -4 -1 5 LAND (KM) 612 552 498 438 383 273 182 172 132 100 53 205 391 570 756 931 1116 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.5 17.7 19.0 20.1 21.0 21.4 21.5 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.7 153.4 154.1 154.7 155.2 156.1 156.9 157.5 158.2 159.2 160.5 162.2 164.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 33 33 28 23 34 34 32 17 20 28 18 15 18 29 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -21. -33. -44. -53. -61. -67. -70. -70. -71. -72. -75. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -13. -20. -23. -22. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. 1. -0. -5. -9. -12. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -18. -27. -38. -51. -61. -70. -79. -87. -93. -98.-102.-103.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 14.2 152.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 657.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING