* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/21/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 132 129 126 120 110 101 92 81 70 63 56 51 46 41 39 38 V (KT) LAND 130 132 129 126 120 110 101 92 81 70 63 56 51 46 41 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 130 129 125 119 113 102 93 85 74 65 58 54 51 49 47 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 8 9 7 7 9 9 19 25 34 36 40 44 48 40 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 -1 0 0 -4 -1 3 12 6 3 0 1 -1 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 266 226 203 218 220 190 196 207 242 257 258 255 261 257 254 266 284 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.5 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 146 144 140 137 137 138 139 137 141 142 141 138 138 144 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 54 56 59 60 61 65 63 59 56 52 45 39 37 41 46 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 19 20 20 22 22 21 17 13 12 10 10 9 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 41 51 58 59 54 64 69 71 67 53 60 47 62 73 88 80 84 200 MB DIV 65 37 29 34 34 76 99 114 66 22 -3 -12 -14 9 23 24 -4 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -1 -1 1 3 6 11 0 -5 -7 -9 -6 -5 2 4 LAND (KM) 684 621 562 501 448 347 241 168 197 151 135 143 254 402 563 737 922 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.8 16.9 18.2 19.2 20.1 20.6 20.8 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 151.8 152.6 153.3 154.0 154.7 155.7 156.5 157.2 157.9 158.8 159.9 161.1 162.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 23 31 34 24 25 37 38 19 13 28 29 21 15 17 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -29. -39. -48. -55. -61. -65. -65. -65. -66. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 1. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -12. -16. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. -3. -9. -10. -12. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -1. -4. -10. -20. -29. -38. -49. -60. -67. -74. -79. -84. -89. -91. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 14.0 151.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 677.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING