* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/20/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 107 106 104 102 100 98 96 92 89 83 79 74 66 59 54 V (KT) LAND 110 108 107 106 104 102 100 98 96 92 89 83 79 74 66 59 54 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 106 103 101 100 100 95 90 83 76 69 64 58 51 44 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 5 4 4 6 3 4 7 8 8 18 28 37 45 56 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -4 -1 0 1 3 3 3 6 9 9 7 2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 278 287 318 57 126 177 230 218 215 247 280 263 252 256 257 257 269 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 148 146 144 140 144 144 141 138 140 142 140 141 139 137 139 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 60 57 57 53 52 56 57 59 57 55 53 49 39 35 34 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 18 22 24 24 24 24 22 19 17 17 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 25 41 49 48 56 65 74 72 80 77 80 71 55 58 61 63 43 200 MB DIV 25 51 54 66 58 57 70 50 31 72 62 52 8 -3 -27 -4 -34 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 5 2 5 0 -2 -4 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 1093 994 898 814 735 605 489 414 379 402 477 393 371 419 543 688 852 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.5 17.3 18.4 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.5 147.5 148.6 149.5 150.5 152.2 153.8 155.5 157.1 158.6 160.0 161.3 162.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 17 17 15 13 25 32 21 28 33 38 34 22 16 12 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -16. -23. -30. -35. -39. -41. -42. -42. -43. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 2. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -18. -21. -27. -31. -36. -44. -51. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.7 146.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 618.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING