* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/20/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 104 104 104 100 99 95 91 88 79 74 69 65 61 58 53 V (KT) LAND 105 104 104 104 104 100 99 95 91 88 79 74 69 65 61 58 53 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 104 102 100 99 99 95 85 76 67 60 56 52 48 43 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 2 4 5 6 8 7 10 12 15 24 37 38 45 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -4 -2 1 5 5 6 1 0 9 7 4 4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 289 264 260 325 39 191 217 252 255 258 268 253 245 248 258 264 276 SST (C) 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 150 147 146 146 147 144 141 137 137 139 140 139 137 136 135 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 53 52 54 55 57 59 57 56 53 49 46 44 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 20 21 22 20 24 23 23 22 17 13 10 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 17 33 45 44 43 52 63 66 76 79 71 57 25 9 0 11 9 200 MB DIV 6 29 38 43 43 61 51 44 49 40 51 55 50 9 -11 -24 -8 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 0 0 5 6 5 6 6 1 -1 4 -3 -1 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1199 1096 995 902 813 663 535 429 373 359 427 436 401 426 511 627 741 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.9 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.3 146.4 147.4 148.4 149.4 151.2 152.9 154.6 156.2 157.7 159.3 160.8 162.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 20 17 19 19 21 31 22 21 29 34 33 24 15 10 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -20. -25. -30. -34. -36. -37. -38. -39. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 6. 3. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 4. 5. 4. 4. -3. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -5. -6. -10. -14. -17. -26. -31. -36. -40. -44. -47. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 13.7 145.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 636.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING