* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/19/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 105 103 101 99 96 94 91 89 85 81 77 73 67 62 57 V (KT) LAND 110 108 105 103 101 99 96 94 91 89 85 81 77 73 67 62 57 V (KT) LGEM 110 107 104 102 100 97 96 93 88 81 75 69 63 58 51 45 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 10 8 0 5 6 6 10 12 10 21 32 40 43 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -5 -6 -7 1 3 7 5 3 0 9 9 9 6 3 5 SHEAR DIR 292 275 283 280 314 297 251 217 243 233 253 247 249 239 244 254 270 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 149 150 148 146 147 147 143 139 136 138 139 139 139 136 135 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 58 57 55 54 58 60 60 60 56 51 46 42 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 18 17 20 22 22 22 23 21 19 16 15 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 5 19 26 39 41 47 57 67 63 77 83 72 51 45 23 21 28 200 MB DIV 13 9 2 24 15 48 68 87 45 31 54 58 44 19 -2 -30 -30 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -2 0 3 3 4 6 6 5 0 4 0 0 -5 -9 LAND (KM) 1326 1221 1119 1027 938 777 636 508 415 367 387 467 418 402 462 567 674 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.8 16.5 17.3 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 144.1 145.2 146.2 147.2 148.1 150.0 151.8 153.6 155.3 156.8 158.4 159.9 161.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 23 21 17 18 18 27 30 19 24 30 35 31 18 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -15. -23. -29. -34. -38. -41. -41. -42. -43. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. -25. -29. -33. -37. -43. -48. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.4 144.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 534.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING