* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/17/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 102 106 108 106 99 95 91 87 81 76 72 69 69 66 63 V (KT) LAND 90 97 102 106 108 106 99 95 91 87 81 76 72 69 69 66 63 V (KT) LGEM 90 97 101 103 104 103 100 96 91 85 78 70 62 58 56 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 2 3 3 5 6 11 11 9 15 21 23 21 25 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 0 8 7 2 -1 0 -1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 337 329 354 354 295 280 281 279 301 284 269 269 292 283 280 259 259 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 151 152 152 150 147 150 142 144 145 144 143 143 141 138 140 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 62 61 58 56 50 48 51 56 58 60 61 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 18 18 18 21 22 21 20 20 18 16 18 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 6 4 2 3 4 13 24 28 29 36 38 41 32 39 38 29 18 200 MB DIV 35 29 34 49 72 58 24 45 44 20 -3 10 22 9 47 42 34 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -5 -2 0 -3 1 4 4 5 7 2 2 1 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 2447 2292 2137 1988 1839 1555 1298 1071 867 688 544 432 423 515 643 672 733 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.6 135.1 136.5 137.9 139.3 142.0 144.4 146.6 148.7 150.8 152.9 154.9 156.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 10 11 13 20 16 21 15 18 20 27 21 22 25 36 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -20. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 5. 4. 1. -0. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 18. 16. 9. 5. 1. -3. -9. -14. -18. -21. -20. -24. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 11.3 133.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.28 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 367.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.3% 39.0% 33.2% 27.6% 19.4% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 47.5% 41.2% 39.8% 33.2% 12.5% 14.3% 2.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 33.8% 53.0% 22.9% 17.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 39.5% 44.4% 31.9% 26.1% 11.2% 11.9% 0.9% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##