* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/17/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 92 97 102 105 107 104 100 95 96 93 90 86 84 81 82 78 V (KT) LAND 85 92 97 102 105 107 104 100 95 96 93 90 86 84 81 82 78 V (KT) LGEM 85 93 98 101 103 106 106 104 101 96 91 86 79 73 70 69 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 4 1 4 3 4 4 8 6 12 15 12 16 19 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 0 -3 -1 3 0 0 9 3 7 10 5 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 357 333 322 317 5 328 303 279 295 343 279 293 269 278 292 307 251 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 147 150 152 150 149 145 146 145 144 145 145 143 144 137 139 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 67 67 63 59 57 53 51 51 55 57 60 60 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 18 18 18 19 21 21 24 24 25 23 23 21 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 3 2 1 2 5 12 13 24 30 34 45 57 47 51 63 63 63 200 MB DIV 61 44 49 46 62 78 41 65 52 35 1 22 23 2 21 50 28 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -5 -6 -3 -4 0 5 5 7 6 7 4 4 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 2571 2445 2289 2137 1985 1694 1434 1187 967 782 608 466 419 508 652 734 816 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.1 133.6 135.0 136.5 137.9 140.6 143.0 145.3 147.5 149.6 151.8 154.1 156.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 12 8 10 11 15 23 16 17 20 17 26 23 20 27 31 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 7. 11. 11. 11. 8. 7. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 19. 15. 10. 11. 8. 5. 1. -1. -4. -3. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 11.2 132.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 8.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 38.7% 42.4% 33.9% 28.1% 19.4% 21.3% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 41.4% 49.1% 43.2% 36.5% 18.2% 17.0% 4.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 37.3% 53.0% 35.0% 23.2% 2.8% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 39.1% 48.2% 37.3% 29.3% 13.5% 13.9% 6.8% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##