* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/17/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 74 79 85 95 98 96 94 96 91 91 86 80 79 77 75 V (KT) LAND 60 67 74 79 85 95 98 96 94 96 91 91 86 80 79 77 75 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 71 76 80 91 100 105 106 104 97 91 82 72 67 63 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 8 2 1 1 3 3 7 8 13 12 17 12 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 2 2 3 10 10 14 9 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 2 5 2 353 9 293 83 341 345 320 353 320 288 265 266 289 295 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.6 28.0 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 147 146 145 149 149 148 140 144 140 143 145 144 141 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 66 68 67 67 65 61 58 54 52 50 50 54 58 59 60 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 17 18 20 20 21 23 26 24 26 25 22 23 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR -1 1 0 0 0 9 16 20 22 34 41 40 46 38 34 49 34 200 MB DIV 80 86 78 62 54 58 66 35 48 49 33 -6 16 4 -3 14 4 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -11 -8 -5 -4 -1 1 7 7 8 9 8 3 6 4 3 LAND (KM) 2355 2447 2532 2461 2315 2005 1722 1454 1210 978 769 577 429 361 460 660 755 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.5 13.1 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.2 130.5 131.9 133.3 134.6 137.5 140.1 142.5 144.8 147.0 149.1 151.3 153.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 14 13 12 11 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 21 12 7 9 13 30 12 18 17 19 25 22 20 25 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 11. 12. 9. 5. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 19. 26. 35. 38. 36. 34. 36. 31. 31. 26. 20. 19. 17. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.0 129.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 9.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 9.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 7.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 12.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 8.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -7.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.6% 60.2% 54.8% 48.2% 35.3% 43.4% 34.0% 18.2% Logistic: 25.7% 51.0% 37.7% 29.4% 15.0% 28.4% 13.5% 3.4% Bayesian: 34.1% 54.8% 40.0% 28.5% 5.5% 21.5% 2.6% 0.0% Consensus: 30.5% 55.3% 44.2% 35.4% 18.6% 31.1% 16.7% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/17/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##