* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052018 08/16/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 45 45 45 45 46 47 45 43 40 38 37 39 40 42 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 45 45 45 45 46 47 45 43 40 38 37 39 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 45 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 7 8 19 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 322 300 301 277 257 248 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 22.6 21.6 20.2 17.4 14.4 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 93 89 85 78 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 83 81 78 73 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -57.0 -57.2 -57.4 -57.2 -56.4 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -1.2 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 53 58 62 62 59 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -87 -76 -47 -33 -42 -60 -69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 14 30 36 20 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 26 43 34 33 18 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 994 1090 1204 1394 1587 958 404 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.4 43.7 45.0 46.4 47.7 50.4 53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.1 39.9 37.6 34.5 31.4 23.8 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 21 23 25 27 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 15 CX,CY: 10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 20. 22. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. -0. -2. -3. -1. 0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 42.4 42.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.80 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.13 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 14.2% 9.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.7% 3.7% 2.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 45 45 45 45 46 47 45 43 40 38 37 39 40 42 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 42 42 42 43 44 42 40 37 35 34 36 37 39 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 38 38 39 40 38 36 33 31 30 32 33 35 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 30 30 31 32 30 28 25 23 22 24 25 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT