* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/16/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 62 67 72 82 89 93 95 98 96 97 91 88 87 85 84 V (KT) LAND 50 55 62 67 72 82 89 93 95 98 96 97 91 88 87 85 84 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 63 68 77 88 100 107 108 104 97 89 82 77 72 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 8 9 10 5 5 7 5 6 7 14 14 11 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -3 -1 -1 -6 -5 -1 -2 0 1 6 4 3 9 4 2 SHEAR DIR 37 23 17 10 17 43 21 14 20 19 323 321 292 302 275 283 276 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.5 27.7 28.0 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 154 150 146 146 150 149 150 142 144 141 143 144 144 141 140 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 66 68 69 67 63 58 55 53 50 49 51 53 54 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 19 19 19 20 22 24 26 28 28 30 28 27 28 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 2 3 2 4 6 17 19 25 30 40 37 49 46 40 37 200 MB DIV 59 76 99 89 75 59 43 53 49 47 64 47 15 18 4 -2 -7 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -10 -9 -5 -4 -1 0 4 4 7 7 9 4 6 3 LAND (KM) 2224 2311 2402 2494 2579 2304 2015 1727 1466 1202 973 782 616 483 391 379 450 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.4 14.1 14.6 14.9 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.0 128.3 129.6 130.9 132.2 134.9 137.6 140.2 142.6 145.0 147.2 149.2 151.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 25 26 20 19 8 9 14 26 12 16 16 19 21 28 20 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 13. 15. 11. 9. 9. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 17. 22. 32. 39. 43. 45. 48. 46. 47. 41. 38. 37. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 10.5 127.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 7.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 52.2% 36.1% 23.7% 16.8% 33.6% 31.6% 19.6% Logistic: 24.9% 53.5% 36.3% 26.5% 27.1% 20.5% 21.5% 10.0% Bayesian: 17.7% 49.0% 33.5% 23.7% 5.6% 21.7% 9.9% 0.2% Consensus: 19.2% 51.6% 35.3% 24.6% 16.5% 25.2% 21.0% 9.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##