* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052018 08/16/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 40 42 44 47 48 47 47 44 42 42 43 44 46 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 40 42 44 47 48 47 47 44 42 42 43 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 38 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 16 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 307 317 316 301 277 252 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.0 22.4 21.2 19.4 14.5 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 108 92 88 82 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 93 82 79 76 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.9 -57.1 -57.3 -57.5 -56.8 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 -1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 57 62 66 62 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 16 16 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -73 -81 -61 -35 -9 -29 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 32 18 31 42 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 15 28 45 32 32 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 933 977 1051 1191 1349 1276 722 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.6 42.8 44.0 45.4 46.7 49.5 52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.8 42.0 40.2 37.6 35.0 28.0 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 20 23 25 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 20. 22. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 12. 12. 9. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 41.6 43.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.78 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.20 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.7% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.9% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 39 40 42 44 47 48 47 47 44 42 42 43 44 46 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 40 42 45 46 45 45 42 40 40 41 42 44 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 35 37 40 41 40 40 37 35 35 36 37 39 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 30 33 34 33 33 30 28 28 29 30 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT