* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/16/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 64 70 81 86 91 93 92 92 93 90 90 86 84 84 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 64 70 81 86 91 93 92 92 93 90 90 86 84 84 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 54 59 64 75 85 93 97 99 97 94 88 82 75 70 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 9 8 6 5 3 2 4 3 7 12 15 12 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -6 -5 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -2 2 3 2 10 5 0 SHEAR DIR 26 38 31 35 16 12 343 299 360 295 261 286 300 307 284 279 286 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.4 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.5 27.9 28.0 27.5 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 153 154 150 146 149 150 151 144 144 139 144 143 144 143 138 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 68 68 67 67 63 60 57 55 50 49 50 51 54 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 15 16 18 18 22 22 23 24 27 27 28 26 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -7 -6 -6 -2 0 2 6 12 19 24 27 40 46 46 39 47 200 MB DIV 57 72 56 68 79 46 50 44 75 21 33 35 20 19 23 8 16 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 -6 -8 -5 -1 1 1 4 8 9 8 6 5 LAND (KM) 2153 2232 2315 2406 2501 2457 2161 1863 1581 1316 1078 883 697 547 424 337 334 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.3 11.9 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.5 14.9 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.9 127.1 128.3 129.6 130.9 133.5 136.2 138.9 141.5 143.9 146.1 148.0 150.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 25 26 20 11 9 11 20 18 17 10 23 18 26 26 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 15. 16. 12. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 25. 36. 41. 46. 48. 47. 47. 48. 45. 45. 41. 39. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.4 125.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 44.2% 30.5% 20.4% 15.0% 31.6% 39.8% 39.5% Logistic: 25.6% 58.3% 38.3% 28.4% 27.4% 27.9% 28.2% 15.8% Bayesian: 7.8% 43.0% 25.5% 14.2% 9.7% 24.9% 13.6% 0.4% Consensus: 15.9% 48.5% 31.4% 21.0% 17.4% 28.1% 27.2% 18.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##