* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052018 08/16/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 40 43 46 46 40 39 39 36 34 32 33 34 37 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 40 43 46 46 40 39 39 36 34 32 33 34 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 38 39 41 42 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 7 8 10 15 26 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 3 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 321 314 333 320 313 293 253 246 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.1 25.3 22.6 21.8 17.6 14.6 14.3 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 108 110 93 90 78 74 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 92 95 83 81 73 70 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.7 -56.9 -57.1 -57.3 -57.3 -57.0 -56.2 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.4 -1.4 -1.1 -1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 52 55 60 64 63 61 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -78 -84 -73 -41 -25 -36 -52 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 30 29 15 31 22 17 11 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 16 11 29 41 43 28 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 990 987 1007 1099 1208 1589 1002 418 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.2 41.3 42.4 43.7 44.9 47.5 50.1 52.6 55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.7 43.3 41.9 39.8 37.6 31.6 24.3 16.4 8.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 18 20 22 26 28 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 11. 5. 4. 4. 1. -1. -3. -2. -1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 40.2 44.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.78 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.24 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 11.3% 7.9% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.7% 3.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052018 ERNESTO 08/16/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 40 43 46 46 40 39 39 36 34 32 33 34 37 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 38 41 44 44 38 37 37 34 32 30 31 32 35 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 37 40 40 34 33 33 30 28 26 27 28 31 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 32 32 26 25 25 22 20 18 19 20 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT