* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 59 66 72 84 90 95 96 95 97 97 96 94 91 88 85 V (KT) LAND 45 52 59 66 72 84 90 95 96 95 97 97 96 94 91 88 85 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 56 62 68 80 91 101 105 104 101 98 96 92 81 72 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 11 9 7 8 7 3 6 3 2 4 15 14 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -3 -6 -4 -2 -5 -4 0 -1 0 2 9 5 8 6 0 SHEAR DIR 37 21 42 39 47 23 47 6 299 2 28 359 312 289 305 288 281 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.4 27.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 143 143 144 148 151 150 149 140 147 145 141 139 137 136 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.3 -54.2 -53.3 -53.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -51.8 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 69 68 69 68 65 64 61 58 54 49 47 49 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 16 19 19 23 24 24 26 26 27 28 28 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -9 -10 -8 -5 0 5 7 9 15 22 32 43 43 54 52 55 200 MB DIV 61 67 78 66 72 72 63 7 44 39 41 56 40 18 7 -24 -24 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -4 -5 -6 -6 -5 -2 1 1 4 11 7 11 5 7 LAND (KM) 2090 2167 2247 2323 2402 2579 2309 2029 1756 1489 1230 984 760 581 434 359 404 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.0 126.2 127.3 128.5 129.6 132.2 134.8 137.4 139.9 142.3 144.7 147.0 149.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 20 22 22 19 9 10 14 26 9 19 23 17 23 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 14. 16. 15. 15. 15. 13. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 27. 39. 45. 50. 51. 50. 52. 52. 51. 49. 46. 44. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.4 125.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 45.3% 31.9% 22.4% 15.2% 34.9% 39.7% 26.5% Logistic: 40.6% 66.1% 48.3% 38.5% 35.7% 40.2% 44.2% 25.0% Bayesian: 22.7% 64.2% 48.5% 31.3% 21.4% 42.1% 18.0% 0.3% Consensus: 26.3% 58.5% 42.9% 30.7% 24.1% 39.1% 34.0% 17.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##