* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142018 08/15/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 48 59 69 78 87 87 88 89 88 88 85 83 82 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 48 59 69 78 87 87 88 89 88 88 85 83 82 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 44 54 63 73 82 85 84 80 76 72 65 58 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 5 3 9 7 4 3 5 5 3 7 13 16 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -3 -1 -5 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 4 4 1 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 61 65 70 86 83 41 60 38 293 266 252 234 237 255 251 267 270 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.5 28.1 27.4 27.1 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 148 147 143 143 144 145 150 146 138 135 138 137 136 133 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 68 68 69 69 67 65 61 58 55 53 50 47 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 14 14 15 18 18 19 20 22 23 23 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -17 -20 -21 -17 -7 4 6 14 10 23 30 44 51 49 42 47 200 MB DIV 31 43 55 66 62 80 94 40 51 40 64 29 57 11 25 11 -11 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -5 -3 -1 1 6 7 5 9 10 LAND (KM) 1832 1919 1997 2071 2149 2307 2454 2499 2238 1983 1725 1477 1239 1010 787 580 386 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.4 13.2 14.1 15.0 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.9 124.0 125.1 126.2 128.4 130.6 132.9 135.2 137.4 139.6 141.7 143.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 13 17 18 21 19 15 8 12 11 10 15 21 15 19 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 32. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 9. 7. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 13. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 18. 29. 39. 48. 57. 57. 58. 59. 59. 58. 55. 53. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 121.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 FOURTEEN 08/15/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 23.3% 21.6% 16.3% 0.0% 18.8% 18.6% 34.4% Logistic: 5.8% 32.5% 20.4% 12.1% 9.0% 18.2% 42.6% 38.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 3.2% 5.4% 1.0% Consensus: 5.4% 20.6% 14.4% 9.6% 3.1% 13.4% 22.2% 24.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 FOURTEEN 08/15/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##