* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 42 43 45 51 52 52 54 55 55 56 54 48 36 32 29 V (KT) LAND 45 42 42 43 45 51 52 52 54 55 55 56 54 48 36 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 40 38 37 37 41 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 11 4 3 5 9 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 20 23 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 1 -1 -5 1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 2 6 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 239 239 180 175 130 130 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 207 239 228 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.8 27.3 26.9 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 136 136 133 139 134 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A -54.0 -53.7 -50.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 52 51 51 49 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 68 67 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 14 14 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -41 -40 -45 -53 -57 -97 -106 N/A N/A N/A N/A -89 -10 127 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 5 28 21 12 15 -70 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 186 204 135 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 10 0 1 10 4 12 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 13 -30 -54 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1996 2159 2321 2477 2633 2808 2535 2249 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1070 863 688 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.7 26.2 26.8 27.3 28.4 29.7 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 43.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.5 181.0 182.6 184.1 185.6 188.6 191.5 194.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 194.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 16 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 3 6 7 3 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -6. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -2. 0. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 9. 3. -9. -13. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.1 179.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 411.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 -2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.25 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 21.6% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.3% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##