* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 66 60 57 56 60 63 66 66 62 63 63 64 66 65 66 69 V (KT) LAND 75 66 60 57 56 60 63 66 66 62 63 63 64 66 65 66 69 V (KT) LGEM 75 68 62 58 56 55 57 60 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 22 15 11 9 1 1 9 9 12 N/A N/A N/A 3 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 4 3 3 -2 0 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 226 234 232 238 356 108 127 155 124 N/A N/A N/A 143 194 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.3 26.8 27.8 27.3 27.1 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 141 139 133 144 139 136 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A 5 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 52 51 51 54 56 56 53 53 53 N/A N/A N/A 50 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 17 17 16 16 15 16 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 4 -8 -20 -20 -28 -36 -40 -69 -87 N/A N/A N/A -127 -118 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 3 6 9 20 33 13 35 -88 -92 N/A N/A N/A 112 190 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 21 12 5 4 5 0 6 4 -2 N/A N/A N/A -3 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1377 1513 1651 1795 1939 2241 2561 2873 2624 2339 N/A N/A N/A 1580 1391 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.2 24.0 24.7 25.3 26.2 27.1 28.0 29.1 30.4 N/A N/A N/A xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 173.6 174.9 176.2 177.5 178.9 181.8 184.9 188.0 190.9 193.5 N/A N/A N/A xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A 14 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 10 7 7 7 3 9 5 3 1 N/A N/A N/A 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -18. -19. -15. -12. -9. -9. -13. -12. -12. -11. -9. -10. -9. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.4 173.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.32 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.11 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 572.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.27 -0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.75 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##