* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 83 78 74 71 72 74 78 78 76 76 77 77 79 80 82 V (KT) LAND 95 89 83 78 74 71 72 74 78 78 76 76 77 77 79 80 82 V (KT) LGEM 95 90 84 79 75 68 65 66 71 75 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 25 27 20 9 7 0 3 5 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 1 2 3 5 -2 0 -6 -6 -6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 197 201 214 227 212 259 237 20 109 102 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.6 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.1 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 139 140 138 131 134 135 137 136 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 48 51 52 52 53 52 54 52 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 20 20 19 19 18 19 20 20 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 35 29 26 20 -6 -20 -28 -38 -52 -77 -96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 38 -4 -19 1 10 5 22 7 -5 -42 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 11 14 15 10 10 6 -3 1 -2 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1081 1176 1278 1397 1521 1805 2098 2399 2701 2786 2506 2206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.5 21.3 22.1 22.9 24.2 25.2 26.1 27.2 28.4 29.7 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 170.4 171.5 172.6 173.8 175.0 177.7 180.5 183.4 186.3 189.2 191.9 194.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 15 13 9 8 7 2 8 5 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -22. -25. -28. -30. -31. -32. -33. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -7. -3. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -21. -24. -23. -21. -17. -17. -19. -19. -18. -18. -16. -15. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.7 170.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 708.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##