* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 10 8 12 12 11 8 18 28 40 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 4 4 3 1 15 11 8 3 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 337 352 327 330 332 323 211 221 237 241 222 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.3 24.1 23.9 24.3 24.3 23.8 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 105 105 103 101 99 104 104 99 99 100 101 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 -54.0 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 56 54 54 51 47 45 44 45 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 15 24 24 12 3 -16 -19 -27 -22 -23 -22 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -15 -16 -39 -23 -29 -24 -9 -11 12 21 16 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 4 1 3 5 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1753 1768 1784 1793 1797 1837 1885 1947 1897 1761 1630 1508 1395 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.8 23.3 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.3 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.8 131.1 131.4 131.8 132.1 133.0 134.2 135.6 137.0 138.5 140.0 141.5 143.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 7. 5. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 1. -4. -11. -17. -22. -23. -24. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -11. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -13. -15. -18. -22. -26. -29. -33. -38. -44. -50. -52. -54. -59. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.3 130.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##