* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 55 51 48 39 33 26 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 55 51 48 39 33 26 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 52 48 40 33 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 12 14 10 14 13 12 1 3 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 3 1 3 0 0 8 11 5 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 17 29 355 337 335 336 351 340 349 285 157 139 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.6 24.9 24.4 24.2 24.0 24.1 24.0 23.8 23.7 23.8 23.7 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 110 104 102 100 101 100 98 97 98 96 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 60 62 59 56 49 50 45 45 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 16 15 17 14 15 12 11 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 11 24 25 34 14 11 -7 -2 -17 -27 -36 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 35 25 -15 -14 -32 -23 -4 -11 -17 -15 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 1 2 1 3 1 7 5 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1788 1749 1712 1686 1661 1658 1685 1673 1691 1726 1766 1803 1842 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.9 129.9 129.8 129.8 129.8 130.1 130.7 131.4 132.2 133.2 134.1 134.8 135.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -22. -25. -28. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -12. -21. -27. -34. -40. -43. -46. -50. -55. -55. -54. -54. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.3 129.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/10/18 18 UTC ##