* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 111 107 103 92 84 78 74 68 65 56 48 42 38 35 35 V (KT) LAND 115 114 111 107 103 92 84 78 74 68 65 56 48 42 38 35 35 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 111 108 104 97 89 79 67 58 51 45 40 37 34 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 9 11 13 27 34 33 28 22 19 14 8 15 10 12 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -1 0 3 4 1 5 1 5 -4 -2 -1 1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 252 243 219 195 200 220 208 206 196 177 158 152 108 20 27 53 178 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 28.1 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.7 25.8 24.8 25.1 24.7 24.2 23.9 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 141 141 146 140 135 132 132 122 111 114 109 104 101 88 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 5 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 49 49 47 48 46 48 51 56 54 54 55 55 47 49 52 58 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 19 19 15 12 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 67 64 54 58 49 38 34 21 -4 -29 -47 -45 -34 -58 -63 -89 -49 200 MB DIV 52 70 81 90 92 64 41 8 13 8 20 2 -17 -16 -49 -7 15 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -1 0 8 18 17 19 18 17 11 3 9 4 10 16 LAND (KM) 627 690 779 853 940 1110 1336 1596 1864 2145 2408 2637 2477 2289 2103 1942 1777 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.6 19.1 20.7 22.5 24.4 26.1 27.7 29.3 31.0 32.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 163.7 165.1 166.5 167.7 168.8 170.9 173.2 175.6 178.0 180.5 182.8 184.7 186.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 13 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 24 36 24 19 18 10 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -20. -28. -36. -42. -47. -52. -54. -57. -60. -65. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -4. -4. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -12. -23. -31. -37. -41. -47. -50. -59. -67. -73. -77. -80. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.2 163.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 853.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##