* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 57 52 46 40 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 57 52 46 40 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 54 53 47 40 34 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 11 11 10 14 14 17 16 12 1 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 0 2 6 0 1 0 3 5 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 39 60 49 35 44 3 33 357 343 345 328 316 179 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.5 24.5 24.0 23.7 23.4 22.8 22.7 22.7 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 127 123 117 106 100 97 94 88 87 87 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 60 60 62 63 59 56 51 44 39 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 16 16 15 15 14 11 10 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 31 16 11 20 50 47 30 17 -11 -17 -24 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 22 15 12 28 17 -15 -31 0 0 6 -16 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -2 1 1 1 6 3 3 1 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1946 1883 1820 1755 1691 1605 1549 1526 1514 1459 1404 1357 1318 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.7 21.7 22.5 23.4 24.4 25.4 26.4 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.0 129.8 129.5 129.3 129.0 128.8 128.8 129.0 129.3 129.8 130.3 130.8 131.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -17. -20. -23. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -11. -14. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -9. -15. -22. -30. -36. -41. -49. -49. -50. -51. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.1 130.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 8.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##