* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 60 60 57 51 46 40 37 31 26 20 20 20 20 21 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 60 60 57 51 46 40 37 31 26 20 20 20 20 21 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 60 56 50 43 38 32 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 7 7 8 9 5 11 9 17 15 13 1 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -5 -2 1 -1 0 0 -1 1 9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 58 64 48 27 352 5 20 350 351 355 355 184 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.1 24.4 24.1 23.7 23.4 22.8 22.7 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 129 127 123 112 104 101 97 94 88 87 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 61 60 61 61 61 55 49 44 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 14 12 12 13 13 13 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 34 23 6 12 72 59 50 23 3 -2 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 15 25 10 6 21 -22 -40 -18 -10 -9 -16 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 4 2 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1991 1934 1879 1820 1762 1648 1585 1540 1512 1510 1459 1421 1380 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.9 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.2 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.1 129.9 129.7 129.5 129.3 128.8 128.7 128.7 128.9 129.3 129.8 130.3 130.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -5. -7. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. -4. -9. -15. -18. -24. -29. -35. -35. -35. -35. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.6 130.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 26.1% 22.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 3.8% 2.9% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 10.0% 8.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##