* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 102 102 101 98 94 94 89 86 80 81 79 74 66 58 51 V (KT) LAND 105 104 102 102 101 98 94 94 89 86 80 81 79 74 66 58 51 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 102 100 99 98 98 97 92 82 74 69 67 63 54 46 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 4 5 7 11 18 18 22 20 18 10 15 15 19 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -1 -4 -5 1 0 6 7 4 7 1 1 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 273 282 287 194 218 162 198 206 221 211 222 182 161 127 84 87 71 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.0 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.7 25.3 25.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 141 143 143 145 148 145 138 137 135 131 131 132 117 122 126 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 44 44 47 47 46 48 47 46 50 54 56 56 56 56 50 54 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 18 19 20 20 22 21 21 18 20 19 19 15 11 7 850 MB ENV VOR 35 53 65 72 68 72 73 64 41 18 2 -15 -28 -36 -49 -54 -93 200 MB DIV 19 6 43 53 54 92 78 34 16 11 -1 42 26 2 -10 -12 -41 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -3 -3 -1 -6 7 9 6 14 22 17 19 5 -3 -10 -1 LAND (KM) 452 568 589 634 707 874 1057 1247 1463 1717 1963 2218 2465 2721 2527 2252 1996 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.9 18.9 20.0 21.4 23.1 24.8 26.6 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 159.3 160.7 162.1 163.5 164.9 167.5 169.9 172.1 174.4 176.9 179.2 181.5 183.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 29 33 29 45 32 16 8 6 5 2 3 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -21. -27. -32. -35. -38. -39. -40. -43. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 1. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. -11. -16. -19. -25. -24. -26. -31. -39. -47. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.6 159.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 829.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 28 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##