* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 39 40 41 41 40 40 39 38 35 34 35 36 37 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 39 39 40 41 41 40 40 39 38 35 34 35 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 38 37 37 36 36 35 34 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 7 5 4 4 3 4 4 3 5 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 0 0 -3 -1 -2 -1 0 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 354 356 356 3 20 118 79 63 311 259 265 306 313 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.1 26.5 26.0 25.5 24.6 24.3 23.8 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 133 135 136 132 127 121 116 107 103 98 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 63 63 62 57 57 55 55 51 44 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 10 11 16 16 31 31 40 95 109 84 85 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -21 -5 -2 -10 28 29 14 6 12 -28 -12 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -7 -5 -6 -6 -1 0 0 0 -4 -3 -10 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2080 2088 2098 2085 2074 2024 1945 1854 1792 1752 1751 1745 1736 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.7 17.7 18.8 19.8 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.9 129.4 129.9 130.2 130.4 130.6 130.5 130.3 130.3 130.5 131.0 131.7 132.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 7 8 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.3 128.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 16.5% 13.2% 8.7% 0.0% 13.9% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.8% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.5% 5.1% 3.3% 0.2% 4.7% 4.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##