* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 98 93 91 87 86 87 91 89 84 87 87 89 91 91 90 V (KT) LAND 110 104 98 93 91 87 86 87 91 89 84 87 87 89 91 91 90 V (KT) LGEM 110 104 98 94 91 88 87 89 94 95 92 88 83 84 86 89 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 2 4 1 7 10 9 8 11 6 4 1 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -5 -4 -1 2 -4 -3 0 2 7 10 4 0 0 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 260 254 247 230 246 278 289 87 212 199 212 223 255 302 316 160 76 SST (C) 27.0 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 138 140 140 141 142 141 139 142 143 142 135 134 133 132 128 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 43 43 42 42 40 42 43 42 47 46 49 52 56 57 54 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 16 19 19 19 19 23 23 21 23 23 24 25 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 23 31 38 44 49 76 81 71 82 70 50 32 7 1 -14 -22 -39 200 MB DIV 0 5 6 16 45 48 55 36 38 19 12 23 4 22 40 10 -18 700-850 TADV 4 4 1 -2 -7 -4 0 4 9 18 9 6 4 0 -6 0 -6 LAND (KM) 378 288 264 327 437 578 714 909 1110 1305 1527 1771 2013 2273 2536 2800 2757 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.6 18.3 19.3 20.4 21.7 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.2 154.7 156.2 157.7 159.2 162.1 165.0 167.7 170.2 172.5 174.9 177.4 179.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 18 21 23 28 27 46 33 13 13 17 10 8 3 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -19. -26. -32. -37. -41. -43. -44. -45. -46. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. -0. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 6. 7. 4. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -19. -23. -24. -23. -19. -21. -26. -23. -23. -21. -19. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 16.4 153.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 981.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##