* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 106 101 96 89 87 86 92 90 86 83 82 82 82 84 87 V (KT) LAND 115 111 106 101 96 89 87 86 92 90 86 83 82 82 82 84 87 V (KT) LGEM 115 110 104 98 93 89 87 88 93 94 90 84 78 73 73 77 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 6 10 6 4 4 5 12 14 21 19 13 11 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 0 -2 1 0 -7 -1 1 10 7 8 1 1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 278 249 252 233 229 241 197 241 190 225 198 217 227 260 295 276 194 SST (C) 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 138 138 140 140 142 142 141 139 142 144 138 135 133 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 8 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 43 43 42 42 41 41 43 43 45 51 53 59 61 62 61 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 19 19 20 21 21 25 25 23 22 22 22 22 23 26 850 MB ENV VOR 12 21 28 34 43 63 80 64 80 77 67 50 28 12 2 -4 0 200 MB DIV -1 2 3 10 22 35 52 36 52 23 60 18 6 10 30 28 -12 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -2 -4 -7 -3 -1 3 11 11 7 11 14 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 473 365 271 240 298 522 606 796 998 1213 1434 1663 1902 2157 2417 2680 2867 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.6 18.2 19.0 19.9 21.0 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 151.6 153.1 154.6 156.1 157.6 160.6 163.5 166.4 169.0 171.5 173.9 176.3 178.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 7 9 18 22 30 32 41 33 16 11 19 11 13 5 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -22. -30. -37. -42. -46. -49. -49. -50. -52. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 7. 7. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -19. -26. -28. -29. -23. -25. -29. -32. -33. -33. -33. -31. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.5 151.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1032.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.2% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##