* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 45 45 46 46 44 43 39 36 32 31 31 31 31 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 45 45 46 46 44 43 39 36 32 31 31 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 44 44 42 41 40 37 35 32 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 12 7 6 2 2 7 17 15 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 2 2 0 1 -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 356 356 358 359 336 132 234 257 278 259 282 339 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.7 24.8 24.1 23.2 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 133 133 134 134 130 125 118 109 102 93 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 62 62 62 58 58 53 53 52 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 14 13 13 14 13 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 14 10 11 18 35 41 56 88 117 96 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 26 11 -2 -5 -16 10 4 2 -13 -32 -21 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -12 -12 -8 -7 0 2 -2 -1 -5 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1987 2024 2049 2045 2043 2012 1955 1879 1825 1781 1774 1744 1713 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.3 16.2 17.2 18.3 19.4 20.6 21.8 22.8 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.5 128.1 128.7 129.1 129.5 130.0 130.2 130.2 130.4 130.7 131.3 132.1 132.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 12 9 8 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.1 127.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 17.9% 17.0% 12.4% 9.1% 14.2% 14.7% 13.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.5% 5.8% 4.2% 3.1% 4.8% 4.9% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/08/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##