* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 124 120 115 109 100 93 90 93 89 87 86 87 87 89 89 89 V (KT) LAND 130 124 120 115 109 100 93 90 93 89 87 86 87 87 89 89 89 V (KT) LGEM 130 124 117 111 105 95 90 90 90 91 91 90 89 86 84 82 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 3 2 6 4 6 1 1 3 4 10 14 17 19 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 5 7 4 2 -4 1 0 -2 4 3 5 5 6 6 10 SHEAR DIR 59 35 331 118 154 198 203 269 213 247 238 227 203 230 227 234 223 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 134 132 131 141 139 139 140 141 138 141 143 144 145 136 137 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 50 49 46 45 43 42 40 39 42 42 47 53 55 57 58 63 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 21 21 21 21 19 20 24 23 23 23 23 22 22 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 40 27 8 9 21 35 48 62 75 70 61 66 71 60 48 39 17 200 MB DIV 15 -3 -22 2 1 -12 9 24 32 2 1 22 57 47 54 5 16 700-850 TADV -11 -14 -12 -5 3 4 -1 -3 2 3 -1 3 10 10 12 21 17 LAND (KM) 1062 912 766 626 496 290 304 539 638 831 1034 1236 1418 1592 1757 1932 2119 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.6 147.1 148.5 150.0 151.4 154.4 157.4 160.4 163.4 166.4 169.0 171.4 173.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 5 3 3 13 19 24 33 38 37 24 13 16 24 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -23. -32. -42. -51. -57. -63. -66. -66. -67. -67. -70. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -1. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -15. -21. -30. -37. -40. -37. -41. -43. -44. -43. -43. -41. -41. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 15.7 145.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1034.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 92 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##