* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 81 88 94 101 100 90 79 67 56 45 37 29 25 20 17 V (KT) LAND 65 72 81 88 94 101 100 90 79 67 56 45 37 29 25 20 17 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 78 84 88 90 84 74 62 52 44 37 32 27 25 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 15 16 16 4 3 2 3 8 14 10 8 7 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 4 0 1 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 6 SHEAR DIR 10 52 29 17 360 322 290 309 254 221 214 235 202 232 223 253 280 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.2 26.7 24.8 23.5 22.2 21.0 21.1 21.1 20.8 21.0 21.4 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 162 161 158 147 131 112 98 84 71 72 71 68 70 73 76 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -50.6 -51.3 -50.6 -51.2 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 76 78 78 77 76 76 74 74 74 73 68 63 60 53 46 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 33 33 33 35 33 30 28 25 22 21 20 17 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 12 18 19 44 46 43 56 59 55 85 71 45 46 43 45 34 29 200 MB DIV 142 136 142 150 98 4 61 30 18 0 23 3 26 -9 -6 -14 -9 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -7 -3 2 19 7 0 0 -7 -7 3 3 3 5 2 2 LAND (KM) 491 495 503 518 450 368 366 402 446 553 722 848 970 1068 1173 1277 1385 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.2 18.9 20.3 21.9 23.5 24.9 26.0 26.7 27.1 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 108.9 109.4 110.1 110.7 112.2 114.0 116.0 118.1 120.2 122.2 124.0 125.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 30 24 17 13 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. -0. -4. -8. -12. -17. -22. -27. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 4. -1. -5. -6. -7. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 23. 29. 36. 35. 25. 14. 2. -9. -20. -28. -36. -40. -45. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.4 108.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 10.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.87 11.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 10.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 6.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -8.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 46.2% 62.0% 50.1% 41.0% 25.6% 20.1% 16.0% 11.6% Logistic: 10.1% 16.6% 7.7% 4.4% 0.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 9.7% 20.6% 23.2% 9.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 22.0% 33.1% 27.0% 18.4% 8.9% 7.5% 5.6% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##