* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 136 135 130 123 113 102 93 89 91 87 85 86 86 86 85 85 V (KT) LAND 135 136 135 130 123 113 102 93 89 91 87 85 86 86 86 85 85 V (KT) LGEM 135 133 127 120 115 106 99 91 90 93 95 96 97 95 92 90 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 3 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 6 3 12 16 14 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 0 0 2 3 4 -1 0 0 -5 3 5 5 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 32 106 91 358 334 129 256 128 29 15 315 147 219 220 227 260 346 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 139 140 140 137 138 137 138 140 137 141 143 145 146 145 140 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.2 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 9 8 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 51 52 50 50 47 44 41 36 34 36 36 38 42 43 45 44 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 23 22 21 22 22 20 20 24 23 23 24 25 24 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 45 55 53 42 28 37 51 63 80 90 77 76 79 76 69 42 27 200 MB DIV 13 28 6 -15 -11 31 -5 11 -7 17 -12 -3 29 26 0 -24 -34 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -7 -12 -9 1 5 2 -6 -2 0 -2 0 2 1 4 0 LAND (KM) 1403 1254 1105 951 799 519 305 328 563 649 831 1034 1230 1397 1556 1691 1835 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.5 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.4 143.8 145.2 146.7 148.2 151.2 154.3 157.5 160.6 163.6 166.4 169.0 171.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 15 11 9 7 10 16 23 41 32 41 31 16 17 23 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -14. -24. -34. -45. -54. -62. -68. -72. -72. -72. -72. -75. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -5. -12. -22. -33. -42. -46. -44. -48. -50. -49. -49. -49. -50. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 15.1 142.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 985.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 80 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##