* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP112018 08/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 63 65 69 70 69 67 64 62 62 61 60 58 57 57 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 63 65 69 70 69 67 64 62 62 61 60 58 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 61 63 64 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 24 24 22 24 20 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 5 6 3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 289 288 295 286 290 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.7 29.0 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 172 171 169 173 156 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 10 8 8 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 79 79 78 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 31 51 58 68 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 135 136 139 110 69 108 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -13 -3 8 4 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 161 139 88 81 128 216 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.8 17.7 18.7 19.6 21.1 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.2 102.6 103.9 105.2 106.6 109.2 111.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 34 28 24 32 12 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 14. 15. 14. 12. 9. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.8 101.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112018 ILEANA 08/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 45.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 0.9% 19.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112018 ILEANA 08/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##