* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP112018 08/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 62 66 72 75 73 71 68 67 66 66 66 65 64 64 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 62 66 72 75 73 71 68 67 66 66 66 65 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 60 62 64 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 15 17 13 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 10 7 8 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 307 318 310 293 281 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.5 30.2 30.7 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 170 170 172 169 173 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 79 80 80 79 78 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 2 4 32 39 55 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 155 153 147 140 87 83 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -14 -13 -5 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 206 175 156 107 108 170 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.2 20.1 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.7 101.0 102.2 103.5 104.9 107.3 109.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 16 16 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 37 35 31 25 27 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 25. 23. 21. 18. 17. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.7 99.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112018 ILEANA 08/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 10.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 136.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.88 8.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 7.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 52.8% 36.7% 25.2% 16.2% 36.0% 0.0% 19.5% Logistic: 3.8% 12.9% 7.2% 3.5% 0.3% 4.9% 1.9% 2.1% Bayesian: 2.3% 43.5% 41.0% 11.9% 0.0% 6.3% 0.2% 0.9% Consensus: 7.2% 36.4% 28.3% 13.5% 5.5% 15.7% 0.7% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112018 ILEANA 08/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##