* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 116 113 110 103 98 92 85 83 85 85 87 89 90 88 83 V (KT) LAND 120 118 116 113 110 103 98 92 85 83 85 85 87 89 90 88 83 V (KT) LGEM 120 118 114 109 106 101 99 93 88 88 92 96 100 104 102 93 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 6 6 3 4 2 4 2 9 4 5 3 11 16 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 4 5 0 -2 -3 -4 0 3 8 7 13 SHEAR DIR 13 16 32 67 42 4 98 277 336 5 32 2 262 223 202 234 231 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 138 138 138 136 137 137 139 138 138 142 144 145 145 144 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -51.6 -52.2 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 54 51 50 49 47 41 40 37 35 33 34 37 40 43 50 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 24 23 23 23 23 23 21 20 23 23 24 25 26 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR 45 39 44 47 46 23 44 51 64 81 82 72 82 96 99 87 71 200 MB DIV -12 -1 9 12 -2 0 15 -3 -5 1 -25 -15 7 55 75 27 2 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -9 -8 -9 -10 -2 4 2 -7 -1 0 2 2 10 14 4 LAND (KM) 1666 1518 1371 1209 1048 731 435 235 318 538 648 826 1027 1232 1424 1614 1808 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.9 141.3 142.6 144.1 145.6 148.7 151.9 155.0 158.0 161.0 163.9 166.6 169.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 13 14 19 8 8 10 20 27 37 38 41 28 16 18 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -25. -34. -42. -48. -53. -55. -56. -56. -57. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -4. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -22. -28. -35. -37. -35. -35. -33. -31. -30. -32. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.8 139.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 874.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##